Gold Surges to Record High Above $3,800 as Fed Cut Bets Strengthen
September 29, 2025
Gold prices climbed to a fresh all-time high above the $3,800 level during Monday’s Asian session, supported by renewed expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts following August inflation data.
XAUUSD Gone to the Sky and Hit New Record High.
Gold surged above $3,800 for the first time after US inflation data met expectations, boosting Fed rate-cut hopes. Traders now see an 88% chance of a rate cut in October. Safe-haven demand and political risks add to support, though overbought conditions suggest a possible pullback.
Brian Njoroge Wambui – CEO, King of Bots
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year, in line with forecasts, while the core PCE increased 2.9%. On a monthly basis, both measures showed modest gains. The figures reinforced market confidence that the Fed will continue easing policy, with traders pricing in an 88% chance of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance of another in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Lower interest rates typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and looming concerns over a potential US government shutdown are boosting safe-haven demand.
Market participants are awaiting comments from several Fed officials later today, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, for clues on the policy outlook. Hawkish remarks could strengthen the US Dollar and limit further gold gains.
From a technical perspective, gold remains bullish above its 100-day EMA, but the 14-day RSI near 76 signals overbought conditions, raising the risk of short-term pullbacks. Key resistance lies in the $3,800–$3,810 zone, with a potential upside target of $3,850 if momentum persists. Initial support stands at $3,722, with deeper downside risk toward $3,632.
